RB
Ray Davis
BUFRB124 · overall #415 · tier – · age 26
Projected points
53
3.5/gm
Value over replacement
-56
repl 116
Range
19–86
sd 33
Week
1.6
vs NE
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 0.9
- Carries / game
- 3.7
- Receptions / game
- 0.7
- Rec yards / game
- 6
- Rush yards / game
- 16
- Rush TD / game
- 0.08
- Rec TD / game
- 0.09
- Total TD / game
- 0.16
- Games projected
- 15.0
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 4.8
- Games of history
- 34
- Age multiplier
- 0.953
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.7
- Projected plays / game
- 61.1
- Projected pass rate
- 55%
- OL run block
- +1.32
- OL pass protection
- +1.30
- OL continuity
- 78%
- 2TE rate
- 28%
- 3WR rate
- 65%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 40%
- Run friendly
- +0.97
- Scheme creativity
- +0.23
- Play action / motion
- 21% / 57%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 8
- Effective contributors
- 1.73
- Top player's share
- 74%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.25
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- sell high
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- NE,LA,LV
- Window matchup
- +0.49
- Opponents after
- BAL,MIN
- After matchup
- -0.52
- Flip edge
- +1.02
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 7
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.26
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
54.1
Per game
3.18
17-gm pace
54
Best / worst
23.4 / -0.2
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1 | RB80 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 2 | 2.4 | RB51 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 0.0 | RB76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0.3 | RB68 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | RB69 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 7.9 | RB18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| 8 | 1.6 | RB51 | 9 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 0.0 | RB66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | -0.2 | RB79 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 0.0 | RB74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 6.0 | RB27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 6.2 | RB41 | 9 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 0.0 | RB71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 1.3 | RB64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 | 3.4 | RB52 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| 17 | 1.6 | RB60 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 | 23.4 | RB2 | 21 | 151 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |