Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Parker Washington

JAX

WR33 · overall #85 · tier 7 · age 24

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Projected points

127

9.1/gm

Value over replacement

23

repl 119

Range

78–176

sd 49

Week

11.5

@ CIN

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-08-22

Raised 22 Aug at Matt's read, and this is the THIRD time it has come up -- the audit flagged him at 24 ranks from ADP, I twice called it a live 'do you believe the breakout' question and left it, and I had lifted his 6 Aug market pin the same morning. Leaving a flagged disagreement unresolved twice is not neutrality, it is a decision taken by default. SAME MECHANISM AS BLAKE CORUM, opposite end of the same file. His seasons run 4.15/g, 5.21, then 8.98 on 5.94 targets across a full 16 games, and USAGE_DECAY_BY_POS['WR'] of 0.50 blends a career that is two-thirds a player he has outgrown -- the model's 7.71 is +0.17 against that blend, so it is CALIBRATED ON THE WRONG POPULATION rather than miscalibrated. A career blend describes neither a collapse nor an ascent. 127.2 over 14.0 games = 9.09/g, within a rounding step of the 8.98 he actually ran in 2025 and with no step up invented on top. Lands WR34, level with ADP WR34 and short of ECR WR29 -- the deliberate stopping point, because he is listed depth 2 in a Jacksonville room where Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr. both project more targets than he does, and that is a real constraint the 2025 tape does not override.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
6.3
Carries / game
0.3
Receptions / game
3.9
Rec yards / game
50
Rush yards / game
1
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.35
Total TD / game
0.35
Games projected
14.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
9.9
Games of history
38
Age multiplier
1.044
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.2
Projected plays / game
61.3
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-0.72
OL pass protection
-0.20
OL continuity
98%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
73%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
-0.06
Scheme creativity
-0.03
Play action / motion
23% / 51%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
4.41
Top player's share
30%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
CIN,PHI,HOU
Window matchup
-0.60
Opponents after
IND,BAL
After matchup
+0.19
Flip edge
-0.79
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
7
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.32

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

155.7

Per game

9.73

17-gm pace

165

Best / worst

23.5 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
10.0WR118000000
210.1WR365576000
35.4WR5411434000
45.9WR5020001-1
58.6WR393216100
63.9WR624229000
78.2WR32104520310
913.0WR219890000
1016.4WR14733312-4
113.0WR652220000
1215.6WR117571100
133.1WR763126000
156.8WR473353000
1623.5WR3106145100
1715.0WR1110811501-5
1817.2WR79587100