Omarion Hampton

Both factors stated: 15 games at 13.67 a game. 15.2 carries and 4.6 targets is a first-round rookie's workload without pretending he has already arrived.

205.0 over 15.0 games = 13.67/g, at Matt's direction. BOTH FACTORS STATED, which is what the games column is for. The games claim: a 2025 first-rounder entering year two, where the model's 12.1 comes from avail_flat 0.529 -- six weeks on Reserve/Injured as a rookie, real but a weak forecast. The rate claim: 13.67/g, above the 13.30 he produced as a rookie, so this asserts a modest second-year step rather than a repeat. It is not near the top of the RB rate table -- Taylor 15.59 and Achane 15.00 sit above -- which is the test the earlier versions of this override failed. Prior expressions, both wrong for the same reason: a bare 198.4 produced 16.39/g and a bare 181.0 produced 14.96/g, because split_override had no availability headroom and spent the whole raise on rate. Re-read 3 Sep: no sign of falsification. 13.67/g on 15.0 games against his own 13.30 half-PPR/g -- ABOVE it, not below, board RB9 against ADP RB11 and ECR RB8, between the two. BASIS CORRECTED 3 SEP. The comparison above originally quoted `obs_ppr_pg`, which is FULL PPR, against a projection the board computes in HALF PPR. Every such figure in this file has been replaced with the player's own half-PPR rate, measured from nflverse weekly data over his whole career. Receptions are the whole difference, so the error scaled with target volume and was largest for receivers. AND IT REVERSED THIS ROW'S CLAIM: on the correct basis the projection is at or ABOVE his own rate, not below it. The row's argument is unaffected -- it rested on the market anchors and the stated rank -- but the supporting sentence said the opposite of the truth.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.