Najee Harris
NYGRB95 · overall #328 · tier – · age 28
Projected points
47
3.8/gm
Value over replacement
-44
repl 116
Range
0–109
sd 62
Week
3.2
vs ARI
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Cut 22 Aug from the audit's list -- RB64 against ECR RB86, no ADP. Same signature as Jauan Jennings: he is projected 5.7 carries a game, the SECOND MOST IN THE ROOM, while listed depth 4 behind Cam Skattebo, Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary. A share earned in Pittsburgh across 15.0 and 15.5 carries a game is being carried into a New York backfield where he is fourth, on the back of a 2025 that was 3 games at 5.0 carries. The model already has him 4.65 below his weighted history, so the rate is handled; the VOLUME is not. RB78, between the board and ECR.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 1.3
- Carries / game
- 4.7
- Receptions / game
- 1.0
- Rec yards / game
- 7
- Rush yards / game
- 19
- Rush TD / game
- 0.13
- Rec TD / game
- 0.01
- Total TD / game
- 0.15
- Games projected
- 12.5
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 10.6
- Games of history
- 54
- Age multiplier
- 0.915
- Usage carryover
- 0.90
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 32.3
- Projected plays / game
- 62.6
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- +0.24
- OL pass protection
- -0.01
- OL continuity
- 75%
- 2TE rate
- 32%
- 3WR rate
- 67%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 47%
- Run friendly
- -0.84
- Scheme creativity
- +0.09
- Play action / motion
- 22% / 40%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach, committee
- Ambiguity score
- 94
- Effective contributors
- 2.83
- Top player's share
- 44%
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 2.24
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy now, flip wk7
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- ARI,WAS,NO
- Window matchup
- +0.73
- Opponents after
- HOU,PHI
- After matchup
- -0.60
- Flip edge
- +1.34
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 8
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.65
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
3
Points
8.6
Per game
2.87
17-gm pace
49
Best / worst
4.8 / 1.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.0 | RB61 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 2 | 4.8 | RB38 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| 3 | 2.8 | RB49 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |