Mitchell Trubisky
TENQB57 · overall #581 · tier – · age 32
Projected points
53
5.9/gm
Value over replacement
-88
repl 250
Range
0–109
sd 56
Week
1.2
@ BAL
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Cut 22 Aug -- QB37 against ECR QB59, 9.00/g against a weighted 5.56, +3.43. Same unfixed backup-quarterback issue as Trey Lance; see that row. Depth 2 in Tennessee at 20.2 attempts a game, 0.59 of the team's dropbacks.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Pass attempts
- 119
- Pass yards
- 803
- Pass TD
- 5.3
- Carries
- 10
- Rush yards
- 35
- Rush TD
- 0.4
- Games projected
- 9.0
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 6.7
- Games of history
- 24
- Age multiplier
- 0.966
- Usage carryover
- 0.89
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 35.4
- Projected plays / game
- 59.5
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- -1.29
- OL pass protection
- -1.25
- OL continuity
- 46%
- 2TE rate
- 21%
- 3WR rate
- 77%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 39%
- Run friendly
- +0.16
- Scheme creativity
- -0.30
- Play action / motion
- 20% / 43%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach
- Ambiguity score
- 66
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 1.85
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- BAL,HOU,IND
- Window matchup
- -0.90
- Opponents after
- CLE,CIN
- After matchup
- -0.51
- Flip edge
- -0.39
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 9
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.31
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
4
Points
31.1
Per game
7.78
17-gm pace
132
Best / worst
28.9 / 0.4
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.0 | QB37 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 8 | 0.9 | QB29 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 0.4 | QB30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | 28.9 | QB1 | 22 | 29 | 259 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 |