Mitchell Tinsley

HOU

WR165 · overall #386 · tier – · age 27

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Projected points

3.9/gm

Value over replacement

-53

repl 119

Range

24–93

sd 35

Week

1.8

vs DAL

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Per game Season total

Targets: 44
Carries: 2
Receptions: 25
Rec yards: 300
Rush yards: 7
Rush TD: 0.0
Rec TD: 1.7
Total TD: 1.7
Games projected: 15.0
Observed pts/gm (history): 4.0
Games of history: 8
Age multiplier: 0.939
Usage carryover: 0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 32.9
Projected plays / game: 61.9
Projected pass rate: 57%
OL run block: -1.37
OL pass protection: -1.19
OL continuity: 64%
2TE rate: 20%
3WR rate: 76%
1st-down pass rate: 46%
Run friendly: -0.36
Scheme creativity: -0.30
Play action / motion: 23% / 53%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: committee
Ambiguity score: 75
Effective contributors: 4.55
Top player's share: 35%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: buy now, flip wk7
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: DAL,TEN,JAX
Window matchup: +0.44
Opponents after: NYG,LAC
After matchup: -0.52
Flip edge: +0.96
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 8
Playoff schedule (15-17): -0.86

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

31.6

Per game

3.95

17-gm pace

Best / worst

10.9 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds	Re TD
2	8.3	WR60	1	1	13	1
3	0.0	WR120	1	0	0	0
4	1.9	WR100	2	1	9	0
9	3.7	WR67	2	1	27	0
12	10.9	WR30	6	2	29	1
13	4.2	WR73	9	2	22	0
15	2.6	WR88	2	1	16	0
16	0.0	WR119	1	0	0	0