WR
Michael Wilson
ARIWR52 · overall #124 · tier 9 · age 26
Projected points
113
7.8/gm
Value over replacement
9
repl 115
Range
54–173
sd 59
Week
6.1
@ LAC
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 5.5
- Carries / game
- 0.0
- Receptions / game
- 3.4
- Rec yards / game
- 43
- Rush yards / game
- 0
- Rush TD / game
- 0.00
- Rec TD / game
- 0.30
- Total TD / game
- 0.30
- Games projected
- 14.6
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 11.1
- Games of history
- 46
- Age multiplier
- 1.009
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.3
- Projected plays / game
- 61.8
- Projected pass rate
- 59%
- OL run block
- -0.66
- OL pass protection
- -0.78
- OL continuity
- 0%
- 2TE rate
- 48%
- 3WR rate
- 52%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- -0.40
- Scheme creativity
- +0.44
- Play action / motion
- 25% / 40%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 88
- Effective contributors
- 3.31
- Top player's share
- 46%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.93
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- LAC,SEA,SF
- Window matchup
- -1.53
- Opponents after
- NYG,DET,LA
- After matchup
- -0.26
- Flip edge
- -1.27
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 14
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.22
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
142.6
Per game
8.39
17-gm pace
143
Best / worst
26.2 / 0.5
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 4.4 | 5 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 4.0 | 4 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 6.1 | 4 | 3 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 3.4 | 7 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 18.5 | 18 | 15 | 185 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 11.8 | 15 | 10 | 118 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 3.6 | 7 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 26.2 | 16 | 11 | 142 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 11.4 | 11 | 5 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 11.2 | 3 | 2 | 52 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 14.9 | 10 | 5 | 89 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 15.9 | 8 | 5 | 99 | 1 | 0 | 0 |