RB
Michael Carter
TENRB57 · overall #191 · tier 9 · age 27
Projected points
52
6.1/gm
Value over replacement
-10
repl 116
Range
14–91
sd 39
Week
1.1
@ BAL
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 3.4
- Carries / game
- 6.0
- Receptions / game
- 2.6
- Rec yards / game
- 17
- Rush yards / game
- 23
- Rush TD / game
- 0.16
- Rec TD / game
- 0.02
- Total TD / game
- 0.18
- Games projected
- 8.6
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 7.3
- Games of history
- 47
- Age multiplier
- 0.934
- Usage carryover
- 0.90
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 35.4
- Projected plays / game
- 59.5
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- -1.29
- OL pass protection
- -1.25
- OL continuity
- 46%
- 2TE rate
- 21%
- 3WR rate
- 77%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 39%
- Run friendly
- +0.16
- Scheme creativity
- -0.30
- Play action / motion
- 20% / 43%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach, clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 57
- Effective contributors
- 1.68
- Top player's share
- 74%
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 1.70
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- BAL,HOU,IND
- Window matchup
- -1.00
- Opponents after
- CLE,CIN
- After matchup
- -0.36
- Flip edge
- -0.64
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 9
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.55
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
13
Points
66.0
Per game
5.08
17-gm pace
86
Best / worst
13.3 / 0.1
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1 | RB71 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 13.3 | RB14 | 18 | 51 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| 6 | 6.4 | RB24 | 9 | 34 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| 7 | 3.6 | RB38 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| 10 | 0.4 | RB59 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 2.8 | RB49 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| 12 | 5.8 | RB28 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| 13 | 6.4 | RB40 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| 14 | 3.1 | RB48 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| 15 | 9.4 | RB24 | 14 | 56 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| 16 | 6.5 | RB38 | 11 | 65 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 4.3 | RB38 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| 18 | 3.9 | RB42 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |