Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Matthew Golden

GB

WR51 · overall #114 · tier 9 · age 23

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Projected points

115

8.2/gm

Value over replacement

11

repl 119

Range

87–144

sd 29

Week

9.9

@ TB

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-08-24

Re-priced 24 Aug to the CURRENT market, replacing the 6 Aug row lifted the same day. Same category as the Strange row written today: MARKET-MATCHING, no independent football argument, and it should not be read as the model having found something. 115.4 = 8.24/g x 14.0 games lands WR48, against ADP WR48, ECR WR49, Underdog WR47 and Yahoo WR55. THIS IS THE LARGEST OF THE THREE LIFTS AND THE REASON IT COULD NOT SIMPLY BE LEFT: native he is WR78 on 5.78/g, a THIRTY-RANK disagreement with all four markets that immediately tripped the audit's own review list. The old row said 'ADP 52' and ADP is now 48, so a row written to RAISE him toward the market had quietly become a ceiling holding him under it -- which is why it was lifted, not because the direction was wrong. WHAT WOULD SETTLE IT PROPERLY: a thirty-rank gap on a second-year receiver is either a real edge or a real miss, and nothing here distinguishes them. His own usage is the thing to look at, not his ADP.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
89
Carries
11
Receptions
56
Rec yards
702
Rush yards
51
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
1.9
Total TD
1.9
Games projected
14.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
5.3
Games of history
14
Age multiplier
1.052
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.1
Projected plays / game
60.5
Projected pass rate
55%
OL run block
-0.62
OL pass protection
-0.44
OL continuity
60%
2TE rate
32%
3WR rate
60%
1st-down pass rate
41%
Run friendly
+0.91
Scheme creativity
+0.54
Play action / motion
23% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
5.34
Top player's share
30%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
TB,CHI,DAL
Window matchup
+0.25
Opponents after
DET,CAR,NE
After matchup
+0.05
Flip edge
+0.20
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.05

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

14

Points

55.5

Per game

3.96

17-gm pace

67

Best / worst

11.7 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
12.6WR832216000
21.5WR1062000215
38.1WR374452039
48.8WR326558015
611.7WR2053860216
75.7WR504437000
81.9WR75334000
91.9WR80329000
112.9WR673124000
140.0WR102100000
157.0WR464355000
160.4WR116100024
171.7WR933112000
181.3WR89318000