Marvin Harrison Jr.
ARIWR32 · overall #81 · tier 7 · age 24
Projected points
130
9.4/gm
Value over replacement
27
repl 119
Range
77–184
sd 54
Week
5.3
@ NYG
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Cut 22 Aug at Matt's read. Projected 10.65/g against a decay-weighted history of 9.22 -- the model is 1.43 ABOVE two seasons that were mediocre: 9.85/g on 52.1 receiving yards a game in 2024, then 8.78/g on 50.7 across 12 games in 2025. Fifty yards a game is not a WR21 line, and after two years the draft capital that justifies projecting a step up has largely been spent. Both markets have moved: ADP WR34, ECR WR31. WR31 lands on ECR and ahead of ADP, so this is still not a full concession.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 6.7
- Carries / game
- 0.0
- Receptions / game
- 3.9
- Rec yards / game
- 52
- Rush yards / game
- 0
- Rush TD / game
- 0.00
- Rec TD / game
- 0.37
- Total TD / game
- 0.37
- Games projected
- 13.9
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 11.4
- Games of history
- 29
- Age multiplier
- 1.044
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.3
- Projected plays / game
- 62.2
- Projected pass rate
- 59%
- OL run block
- -0.14
- OL pass protection
- -0.29
- OL continuity
- 51%
- 2TE rate
- 48%
- 3WR rate
- 52%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- -0.40
- Scheme creativity
- +0.44
- Play action / motion
- 25% / 40%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 88
- Effective contributors
- 3.31
- Top player's share
- 46%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.93
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy low
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- NYG,DET,LA
- Window matchup
- +0.14
- Opponents after
- DEN,DAL,SEA
- After matchup
- -0.27
- Flip edge
- +0.42
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 14
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.38
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
12
Points
86.8
Per game
7.23
17-gm pace
123
Best / worst
15.6 / 0.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13.1 | WR8 | 6 | 5 | 71 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 2.7 | WR81 | 5 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 4.4 | WR45 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 12.6 | WR16 | 10 | 6 | 66 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 9.8 | WR24 | 5 | 4 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 3.2 | WR51 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 5.8 | WR38 | 6 | 2 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 15.6 | WR8 | 10 | 7 | 96 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 11.3 | WR20 | 12 | 3 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 6.9 | WR35 | 7 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 1.4 | WR93 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 0.0 | WR120 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |