Marcus Mariota

WAS

QB40 · overall #438 · tier 8 · age 32

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Projected points

9.5/gm

Value over replacement

-60

repl 250

Range

58–128

sd 35

Week

10.2

vs IND

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Pass attempts / game: 20.3
Pass yards / game: 142
Pass TD / game: 0.94
Carries / game: 2.0
Rush yards / game: 11
Rush TD / game: 0.07
Games projected: 9.8
Observed pts/gm (history): 13.5
Games of history: 28
Age multiplier: 0.966
Usage carryover: 1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 33.8
Projected plays / game: 60.9
Projected pass rate: 56%
OL run block: -0.49
OL pass protection: -0.84
OL continuity: 84%
2TE rate: 31%
3WR rate: 67%
1st-down pass rate: 45%
Run friendly: -0.19
Scheme creativity: -0.16
Play action / motion: 20% / 50%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: settled
Ambiguity score: 24
Effective contributors: –
Top player's share: –
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: buy low
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: IND,NYG,SF
Window matchup: -0.06
Opponents after: PHI,LA
After matchup: -0.61
Flip edge: +0.56
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 7
Playoff schedule (15-17): -0.67

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

125.5

Per game

12.55

17-gm pace

213

Best / worst

23.3 / -2.1

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Cmp	Att	Pa Yds	Pa TD	INT	Ru Att	Ru Yds	Ru TD
3	20.3	QB6	15	21	207	1	0	6	40	1
4	16.2	QB16	16	27	156	2	1	2	20	0
7	3.9	QB29	4	10	63	0	1	2	34	0
8	11.3	QB20	21	30	213	1	2	8	28	0
10	18.7	QB12	16	22	213	2	0	5	22	0
11	15.4	QB11	20	30	213	1	1	4	49	0
13	23.3	QB3	28	50	294	2	1	10	55	0
14	-2.1	QB36	2	4	30	0	1	2	7	0
15	14.7	QB21	10	19	211	1	0	10	43	0
16	3.7	QB32	7	14	95	0	0	1	-1	0