Malik Nabers

My biggest disagreement with the room and my shakiest. 11.9 targets a game is the highest at the position, 9.6 projected games is not, and he carries a questionable tag. If he plays fifteen he's a top-five receiver and I'm still light.

204.4 over 14.0 games = 14.60/g. BOTH FACTORS STATED, and they were wrong in OPPOSITE directions. Games: avail_flat 0.559 reads 15 games as a rookie and 4 in 2025, which is a real record, but the 2025 loss was an October ACL he is now back from -- the beat has him practising, 'felt great', and 'not likely to start camp on PUP'. 14 games is a recovered ACL, not a fragile player. Rate: 15.87/g and 11.87 tgt/g were ABOVE his own rookie season (14.61/g on 11.33 targets) and rested on a 9.6-game projection -- a limited-usage read priced as an elite rate. Held to the 14.61 he actually produced over 15 games. Note the model is not wrong to carry a designation: news_severity stays 0.85 because the cap deliberately never drops a player below his ESPN designation, and that designation looks stale against the reporting. This is the fix for that. Re-read 3 Sep: the rate VERIFIES. 14.60/g is his own rookie-season rate of 14.61 across 15 games, which is what the row set it to. Board WR5 against ADP WR14, ECR WR22, consensus WR12, Underdog WR9 -- we are above all four, and that is a disagreement about a 22-year-old coming off an ACL rather than a stale premise.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.