Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Luther Burden III

CHI

WR24 · overall #71 · tier 6 · age 22

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Projected points

146

10.1/gm

Value over replacement

43

repl 115

Range

94–198

sd 52

Week

9.1

@ CAR

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
97
Carries
7
Receptions
64
Rec yards
867
Rush yards
38
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
3.7
Total TD
3.7
Games projected
14.4
Observed pts/gm (history)
8.3
Games of history
15
Age multiplier
1.052
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.8
Projected plays / game
62.4
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
+1.37
OL pass protection
+1.06
OL continuity
82%
2TE rate
36%
3WR rate
64%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
+0.60
Scheme creativity
+0.58
Play action / motion
26% / 54%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
4.26
Top player's share
29%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
CAR,MIN,PHI
Window matchup
-0.58
Opponents after
NYJ,GB,ATL
After matchup
+0.71
Flip edge
-1.29
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.24

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

15

Points

80.9

Per game

5.39

17-gm pace

92

Best / worst

19.8 / -0.4

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
1-0.311-3000
20.5215000
316.833101117
4-0.422-4000
65.14451000
72.1212201-1
8-0.111-1000
105.13351000
112.75327000
126.153460115
133.66433013
147.06467013
158.47684000
1719.898138100
184.543350110