Lamar Jackson
BALQB4 · overall #51 · tier 2 · age 29
Projected points
280
19.3/gm
Value over replacement
54
repl 250
Range
216–343
sd 64
Week
21.7
vs TEN
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-09-03
Market-matching call, 6 Aug: raised from QB8 to QB3. Expanded 3 Sep; the call is unchanged. 279.8 over 14.5 games is 19.30/g against his own 20.98/g across 58 games, so this stays below his record. Every market is at or above it -- ADP QB4, ECR QB3, consensus QB2.5, Underdog QB2 -- and Sleeper projects 326.0, far above. Lands QB3 exactly, still on its stated target after 28 days, which is why it survived the staleness review unchanged.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Pass attempts / game
- 30.4
- Pass yards / game
- 248
- Pass TD / game
- 1.86
- Carries / game
- 7.6
- Rush yards / game
- 40
- Rush TD / game
- 0.26
- Games projected
- 14.5
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 21.0
- Games of history
- 58
- Age multiplier
- 1.000
- Usage carryover
- 0.90
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.9
- Projected plays / game
- 60.2
- Projected pass rate
- 53%
- OL run block
- +0.50
- OL pass protection
- -0.17
- OL continuity
- 57%
- 2TE rate
- 45%
- 3WR rate
- 34%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- +0.69
- Scheme creativity
- +0.62
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 53%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach
- Ambiguity score
- 66
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 1.85
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- TEN,ATL,CLE
- Window matchup
- +0.28
- Opponents after
- CIN,BUF,JAX
- After matchup
- -0.04
- Flip edge
- +0.32
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 13
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.08
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
13
Points
214.9
Per game
16.53
17-gm pace
281
Best / worst
29.4 / 4.7
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29.4 | QB4 | 14 | 19 | 209 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 70 | 1 |
| 2 | 26.3 | QB3 | 19 | 29 | 225 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| 3 | 27.0 | QB3 | 21 | 27 | 288 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| 4 | 10.7 | QB26 | 14 | 20 | 147 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| 9 | 25.6 | QB9 | 18 | 23 | 204 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| 10 | 16.6 | QB14 | 17 | 29 | 176 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| 11 | 4.7 | QB29 | 14 | 25 | 193 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| 12 | 7.2 | QB25 | 13 | 23 | 153 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| 13 | 6.5 | QB27 | 17 | 32 | 246 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| 14 | 21.1 | QB7 | 19 | 35 | 219 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 43 | 1 |
| 15 | 14.6 | QB22 | 8 | 12 | 150 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| 16 | 4.7 | QB29 | 7 | 10 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 | 20.4 | QB7 | 11 | 18 | 238 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |