Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Ladd McConkey

LAC

WR23 · overall #73 · tier 6 · age 24

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Projected points

147

10.0/gm

Value over replacement

41

repl 115

Range

93–201

sd 54

Week

10.9

vs ARI

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
6.8
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
4.3
Rec yards / game
57
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.36
Total TD / game
0.36
Games projected
14.7
Observed pts/gm (history)
12.6
Games of history
32
Age multiplier
1.044
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.4
Projected plays / game
61.1
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+0.46
OL pass protection
+0.58
OL continuity
37%
2TE rate
16%
3WR rate
71%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
-0.07
Scheme creativity
+0.88
Play action / motion
25% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
90
Effective contributors
3.89
Top player's share
33%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
2.00

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
ARI,LV,BUF
Window matchup
+0.74
Opponents after
SEA,DEN,KC
After matchup
-0.93
Flip edge
+1.67
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
7
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.25

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

147.9

Per game

9.24

17-gm pace

157

Best / worst

19.5 / 1.6

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
110.49674000
27.35548000
36.17441000
41.66111000
512.47539100
619.597100100
711.215967000
817.810688100
97.66456000
1018.764107100
112.84313000
1311.96439100
141.75112000
153.03220000
1612.36443100
173.62131000