Kyren Williams

A rate fade and I'll own it. 20.1 to 16.3 to 14.7 points a game across three seasons — I'm projecting 14.0 and calling that trend real rather than noise.

Cut to 190.4 = 14.00/g x 13.6g at Matt's direction, replacing the 15 Aug Corum note. A RATE claim, that the decline from 20.08 to 16.32 to 14.66 pts/g continues rather than flattening -- the model had 14.91, just above his 2025. NO GAMES VALUE written, deliberately: this is a downgrade and split_override returns games_ratio 1.0 for any downgrade, so games are already untouched and pinning them would only freeze 13.6 against future rebuilds. Pin games only when the claim needs it, as Henry and Likely did. EVERY OTHER LEVER WAS CHECKED AND IS ALREADY CONSERVATIVE, so the rate was the only honest instrument: his projected 61% backfield share sits below his 64% full-season 2025 and at his settled 59% across the last 13, 6 and 4 weeks -- Corum's share stabilised at 41% by about week 4 and never moved again. LA's rush budget is 26.1 against 27.4 actual, in line with the league-wide -4%, and the room summing to 27.95 above it is the documented per-player summing artifact rather than an LA anomaly. His 13.6 games are the model's most conservative input, not its most aggressive: USAGE_DECAY 0.8 still weights his 2022 rookie year at 8 games and 2023 at 12, against 16 and 17 in the two most recent seasons, giving him the third lowest games figure among the top twelve backs. Correcting that would move him FURTHER from ADP, not closer. Re-read 3 Sep: no sign of falsification. 14.00/g against his own 14.67 half-PPR/g is the continued-decline claim, and the board sits RB14 against ADP RB13 and ECR RB14 -- level with both. BASIS CORRECTED 3 SEP. The comparison above originally quoted `obs_ppr_pg`, which is FULL PPR, against a projection the board computes in HALF PPR. Every such figure in this file has been replaced with the player's own half-PPR rate, measured from nflverse weekly data over his whole career. Receptions are the whole difference, so the error scaled with target volume and was largest for receivers.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.