Khalil Shakir

Market-matching call, 22 Aug: cut from WR42 to WR51, level with ADP 51 and Sleeper 52. Expanded 3 Sep. 115.9 over 13.7 games is 8.46/g against his own 6.98 half-PPR/g -- ABOVE it, not below. Sleeper projects 135.2, above. Markets now ADP 50, ECR 47, consensus 47, Underdog 56. Lands WR45, six ranks AHEAD of the stated WR51 -- the board moved up under a cut. Worth 2.5 points of projection, so it is left rather than re-priced, but the direction is the one to watch: a cut that no longer cuts. BASIS CORRECTED 3 SEP. The comparison above originally quoted `obs_ppr_pg`, which is FULL PPR, against a projection the board computes in HALF PPR. Every such figure in this file has been replaced with the player's own half-PPR rate, measured from nflverse weekly data over his whole career. Receptions are the whole difference, so the error scaled with target volume and was largest for receivers. AND IT REVERSED THIS ROW'S CLAIM: on the correct basis the projection is at or ABOVE his own rate, not below it. The row's argument is unaffected -- it rested on the market anchors and the stated rank -- but the supporting sentence said the opposite of the truth.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.