Keon Coleman

BUF

WR54 · overall #121 · tier 9 · age 23

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Projected points

107

8.0/gm

Value over replacement

repl 119

Range

67–147

sd 40

Week

6.5

vs NE

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Targets / game: 5.4
Carries / game: 0.3
Receptions / game: 3.2
Rec yards / game: 44
Rush yards / game: 2
Rush TD / game: 0.00
Rec TD / game: 0.32
Total TD / game: 0.32
Games projected: 13.3
Observed pts/gm (history): 8.4
Games of history: 25
Age multiplier: 1.052
Usage carryover: 1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 34.7
Projected plays / game: 61.1
Projected pass rate: 55%
OL run block: +1.32
OL pass protection: +1.30
OL continuity: 78%
2TE rate: 28%
3WR rate: 65%
1st-down pass rate: 40%
Run friendly: +0.97
Scheme creativity: +0.23
Play action / motion: 21% / 57%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: committee
Ambiguity score: 75
Effective contributors: 4.79
Top player's share: 35%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: sell high
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: NE,LA,LV
Window matchup: +0.72
Opponents after: BAL,MIN
After matchup: -0.41
Flip edge: +1.13
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 7
Playoff schedule (15-17): +0.44

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

64.4

Per game

5.37

17-gm pace

Best / worst

17.2 / 1.1

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds	Re TD
1	17.2	WR4	11	8	112	1
2	2.6	WR83	3	3	26	0
3	2.0	WR81	4	3	20	0
4	4.5	WR48	4	3	45	0
5	6.3	WR41	7	4	23	1
6	1.1	WR85	6	3	11	0
8	3.0	WR59	4	3	30	0
9	1.7	WR72	2	2	17	0
10	10.6	WR22	8	3	46	1
13	6.9	WR35	3	2	9	1
14	1.6	WR75	3	2	16	0
18	6.9	WR24	4	2	49	0