Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

QB

Kenny Pickett

CAR

QB49 · overall #548 · tier – · age 28

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Projected points

82

7.9/gm

Value over replacement

-79

repl 250

Range

48–116

sd 34

Week

2.1

vs DET

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Pass attempts
202
Pass yards
1370
Pass TD
7.2
Carries
16
Rush yards
66
Rush TD
0.6
Games projected
10.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
7.0
Games of history
36
Age multiplier
1.012
Usage carryover
0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.7
Projected plays / game
60.0
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.33
OL pass protection
+0.21
OL continuity
71%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
73%
1st-down pass rate
40%
Run friendly
+0.68
Scheme creativity
-0.67
Play action / motion
21% / 40%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
–
Top player's share
–
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
DET,PHI
Window matchup
-0.12
Opponents after
TB,GB,DEN
After matchup
-0.03
Flip edge
-0.09
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
5
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.26

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

6

Points

7.7

Per game

1.29

17-gm pace

22

Best / worst

8.5 / -1.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
7-1.7QB3922800100
100.0QB3101000000
148.5QB248119710160
151.3QB3315256401270
170.6QB35221600000
18-1.0QB4214301190