Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Kenny Gainwell

TB

RB33 · overall #106 · tier 7 · age 27

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Projected points

121

8.0/gm

Value over replacement

17

repl 110

Range

61–181

sd 60

Week

8.1

@ CIN

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
48
Carries
104
Receptions
39
Rec yards
274
Rush yards
464
Rush TD
3.4
Rec TD
0.9
Total TD
4.3
Games projected
15.2
Observed pts/gm (history)
9.1
Games of history
67
Age multiplier
0.934
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.6
Projected plays / game
62.1
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+0.88
OL pass protection
+1.32
OL continuity
82%
2TE rate
22%
3WR rate
72%
1st-down pass rate
44%
Run friendly
+0.57
Scheme creativity
-0.09
Play action / motion
17% / 58%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
62
Effective contributors
2.89
Top player's share
43%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.77

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
CIN,CLE,MIN
Window matchup
+0.01
Opponents after
GB,DAL,PIT
After matchup
+0.20
Flip edge
-0.20
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.28

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

184.8

Per game

10.87

17-gm pace

185

Best / worst

28.4 / 1.4

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
13.871904340
25.1520053160
39.1416111100
428.41999266350
66.6622066140
72.531402210
82.553102240
95.43-1054350
101.40003240
1126.0924087812
1215.21092066300
135.5520032250
1413.2415176270
1516.11380077460
1621.3950075781
175.3726043120
1817.4510198640