Keaton Mitchell
LACRB54 · overall #177 · tier 9 · age 24
Projected points
68
6.5/gm
Value over replacement
-8
repl 116
Range
28–108
sd 40
Week
4.2
@ SEA
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Raised 22 Aug at Matt's read. He is listed DEPTH 2 at the Chargers and projected BEHIND DEPTH-3 KIMANI VIDAL -- 5.39 carries a game against 5.66 -- which is the depth inversion the new gate looks for, sitting 0.27 under its 0.5 threshold and so slipping through. His rate is not the issue (4.83 against a weighted 4.20); the ORDER within the room is. His 2023 was 9.34/g on 6.71 carries before a knee injury, which is the upside both markets are paying for at ADP RB50 and ECR RB44. RB48, between them.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 1.8
- Carries / game
- 7.3
- Receptions / game
- 1.4
- Rec yards / game
- 12
- Rush yards / game
- 36
- Rush TD / game
- 0.18
- Rec TD / game
- 0.01
- Total TD / game
- 0.19
- Games projected
- 10.5
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 4.5
- Games of history
- 24
- Age multiplier
- 1.022
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.4
- Projected plays / game
- 61.1
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- +0.45
- OL pass protection
- +0.57
- OL continuity
- 37%
- 2TE rate
- 16%
- 3WR rate
- 71%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 45%
- Run friendly
- -0.07
- Scheme creativity
- +0.88
- Play action / motion
- 25% / 52%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 83
- Effective contributors
- 3.10
- Top player's share
- 43%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.85
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- SEA,DEN,KC
- Window matchup
- -1.17
- Opponents after
- LA,HOU
- After matchup
- -0.28
- Flip edge
- -0.89
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 7
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.11
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
13
Points
46.4
Per game
3.57
17-gm pace
61
Best / worst
9.1 / 0.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.3 | RB56 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 6 | 0.0 | RB68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 4.3 | RB38 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 1.8 | RB46 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 | 3.1 | RB43 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 5.4 | RB36 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| 12 | 1.9 | RB48 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| 13 | 9.1 | RB29 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| 14 | 7.6 | RB31 | 6 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 6.6 | RB33 | 8 | 66 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 1.3 | RB63 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 3.8 | RB41 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 | 0.2 | RB81 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |