Kayshon Boutte

Cut 116.8 -> 98.0 toward ECR WR62 and the Sleeper market at Matt's read. A RATE CLAIM -- fantasy_points only, no games. His 12.6 games carry no designation and are not in dispute; the target rate is. WHAT WAS WRONG WITH THE NATIVE NUMBER. Not the snap share, which is his own realised 2025 (model 0.691 against 0.676, and 0.781 in 2024), and not the vacancy credit, which is the measured flat coefficient applied identically to every Houston receiver with Dell and Higgins on IR. It is the BASE: 4.85 tgt/g BEFORE any vacancy is already above his career best of 4.53 (2024) and well above his 3.29 (2025), so the total of 6.01 is 1.8x his most recent season. Carrying a New England snap share into Houston is deliberate -- apply_incoming_competition was measured and rejected -- but it means nothing in the model discounts a role earned against different team-mates. SIZED BETWEEN THE TWO THINGS THAT DISAGREE WITH US. 98.0 over 12.6 games is 7.78/g and scales targets 6.01 -> about 5.04, which still sits ABOVE his career best and so keeps the credit for a thinned room -- it removes the part of the rise that his own record never supported. It lands under Sleeper's own projection of 104.7 (~WR52 on our scale), conceding that the one market that updates daily has us high, while staying above ADP WR68 and Underdog WR68, which are draft-time and predate the Houston injuries. Lands WR58 against ECR 62 and consensus 61. Note the headline gap that surfaced this was inflated: he was WR35 on VOR but WR48 on points, so the audit's 38 ranks was nearer 20 on production.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.