WR
Justin Jefferson
MINWR13 · overall #40 · tier 4 · age 27
Projected points
139
13.3/gm
Value over replacement
61
repl 119
Range
71–206
sd 68
Week
12.4
vs MIA
The take
written by hand
8.8 targets a game and a fade of about two spots. He finished WR25 last year and I'm projecting most of the way back, not all of it.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 9.3
- Carries / game
- 0.1
- Receptions / game
- 5.9
- Rec yards / game
- 81
- Rush yards / game
- 0
- Rush TD / game
- 0.01
- Rec TD / game
- 0.41
- Total TD / game
- 0.42
- Games projected
- 10.4
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 15.4
- Games of history
- 61
- Age multiplier
- 0.939
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.1
- Projected plays / game
- 61.1
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- -0.05
- OL pass protection
- +0.10
- OL continuity
- 76%
- 2TE rate
- 27%
- 3WR rate
- 63%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.76
- Scheme creativity
- +0.22
- Play action / motion
- 26% / 52%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 56
- Effective contributors
- 2.95
- Top player's share
- 48%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.66
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy now, flip wk7
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- MIA,NO
- Window matchup
- +0.75
- Opponents after
- IND,DET,BUF
- After matchup
- +0.39
- Flip edge
- +0.36
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 6
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.78
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
17
Points
159.5
Per game
9.38
17-gm pace
160
Best / worst
17.6 / 1.4
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12.8 | WR19 | 7 | 4 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | 9.6 | WR38 | 6 | 3 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 10.0 | WR32 | 7 | 5 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 17.6 | WR9 | 11 | 10 | 126 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 15.8 | WR11 | 11 | 7 | 123 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 10.4 | WR24 | 10 | 5 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 10.9 | WR26 | 11 | 7 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 13.7 | WR19 | 9 | 6 | 47 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 5.7 | WR44 | 12 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 8.6 | WR27 | 9 | 5 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 6.8 | WR38 | 6 | 4 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 1.4 | WR96 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 2.1 | WR80 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 3.2 | WR76 | 8 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 11.5 | WR25 | 8 | 6 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 5.0 | WR52 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 14.4 | WR10 | 11 | 8 | 101 | 0 | 1 | 3 |