Justice Hill

BAL

RB50 · overall #172 · tier 9 · age 28

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Projected points

6.7/gm

Value over replacement

-8

repl 116

Range

49–127

sd 39

Week

4.6

vs TEN

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Targets / game: 2.7
Carries / game: 5.3
Receptions / game: 2.1
Rec yards / game: 16
Rush yards / game: 24
Rush TD / game: 0.17
Rec TD / game: 0.08
Total TD / game: 0.26
Games projected: 13.2
Observed pts/gm (history): 6.9
Games of history: 56
Age multiplier: 0.915
Usage carryover: 0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 33.9
Projected plays / game: 60.2
Projected pass rate: 53%
OL run block: +0.50
OL pass protection: -0.17
OL continuity: 57%
2TE rate: 45%
3WR rate: 34%
1st-down pass rate: 46%
Run friendly: +0.69
Scheme creativity: +0.62
Play action / motion: 23% / 53%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: new head coach, clear lead
Ambiguity score: 55
Effective contributors: 1.57
Top player's share: 78%
New play-caller: yes
Variance multiplier: 1.64

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: hold
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: TEN,ATL,CLE
Window matchup: +0.28
Opponents after: CIN,BUF,JAX
After matchup: +0.11
Flip edge: +0.17
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 13
Playoff schedule (15-17): -0.28

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

44.2

Per game

4.42

17-gm pace

Best / worst

23.7 / -1.1

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Att	Ru Yds	Ru TD	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds	Re TD
1	-1.1	RB95	2	-14	0	2	1	3	0
2	2.5	RB49	3	7	0	3	3	18	0
3	4.5	RB42	0	0	0	4	3	45	0
4	23.7	RB6	3	76	1	6	5	41	1
5	1.2	RB58	1	3	0	2	1	9	0
6	4.4	RB33	6	16	0	6	5	28	0
8	0.2	RB65	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
9	1.5	RB49	1	2	0	2	2	13	0
10	7.3	RB31	1	1	1	2	1	12	0
12	0.0	RB63	0	0	0	0	0	0	0