RB
Julius Chestnut
TENRB137 · overall #528 · tier – · age 25
Projected points
7
0.7/gm
Value over replacement
-74
repl 116
Range
0–15
sd 7
Week
0.2
@ BAL
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 0.2
- Carries / game
- 1.1
- Receptions / game
- 0.2
- Rec yards / game
- 1
- Rush yards / game
- 4
- Rush TD / game
- 0.01
- Rec TD / game
- 0.00
- Total TD / game
- 0.01
- Games projected
- 11.2
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 0.5
- Games of history
- 35
- Age multiplier
- 1.000
- Usage carryover
- 0.90
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 35.4
- Projected plays / game
- 59.5
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- -1.29
- OL pass protection
- -1.25
- OL continuity
- 46%
- 2TE rate
- 21%
- 3WR rate
- 77%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 39%
- Run friendly
- +0.16
- Scheme creativity
- -0.30
- Play action / motion
- 20% / 43%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach, clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 57
- Effective contributors
- 1.68
- Top player's share
- 74%
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 1.70
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- BAL,HOU,IND
- Window matchup
- -1.00
- Opponents after
- CLE,CIN
- After matchup
- -0.36
- Flip edge
- -0.64
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 9
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.55
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
16
Points
4.0
Per game
0.25
17-gm pace
4
Best / worst
2.6 / 0.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.2 | RB79 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 2.6 | RB56 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0.0 | RB74 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | RB69 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 0.0 | RB69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 0.0 | RB73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 0.5 | RB63 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 0.0 | RB67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 0.0 | RB76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 0.3 | RB61 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 0.0 | RB74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 0.0 | RB71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 0.0 | RB80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 0.1 | RB81 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 0.0 | RB82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 0.0 | RB82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |