Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Josh Palmer

BUF

WR86 · overall #198 · tier 10 · age 26

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Projected points

70

5.4/gm

Value over replacement

-24

repl 115

Range

28–113

sd 43

Week

4.3

@ HOU

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
4.0
Carries / game
0.2
Receptions / game
2.5
Rec yards / game
34
Rush yards / game
1
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.11
Total TD / game
0.11
Games projected
13.1
Observed pts/gm (history)
6.5
Games of history
53
Age multiplier
1.009
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.7
Projected plays / game
61.0
Projected pass rate
55%
OL run block
+1.34
OL pass protection
+1.30
OL continuity
79%
2TE rate
28%
3WR rate
65%
1st-down pass rate
40%
Run friendly
+0.96
Scheme creativity
+0.22
Play action / motion
21% / 57%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
4.79
Top player's share
35%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
HOU,DET,LAC
Window matchup
+0.06
Opponents after
NE,LA,LV
After matchup
+0.56
Flip edge
-0.50
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
7
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.29

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

12

Points

41.3

Per game

3.44

17-gm pace

59

Best / worst

8.6 / 0.6

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
18.69561000
25.73247000
31.0115000
43.53225000
54.62236000
67.02260000
112.75217000
123.14221000
152.12116000
160.7112000
171.72112000
180.6311000