Josh Palmer

BUF

WR108 · overall #249 · tier – · age 27

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Projected points

5.2/gm

Value over replacement

-30

repl 119

Range

25–110

sd 43

Week

6.6

vs NE

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Targets / game: 3.8
Carries / game: 0.2
Receptions / game: 2.4
Rec yards / game: 33
Rush yards / game: 1
Rush TD / game: 0.00
Rec TD / game: 0.10
Total TD / game: 0.10
Games projected: 13.1
Observed pts/gm (history): 6.5
Games of history: 53
Age multiplier: 0.939
Usage carryover: 1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 34.7
Projected plays / game: 61.1
Projected pass rate: 55%
OL run block: +1.32
OL pass protection: +1.30
OL continuity: 78%
2TE rate: 28%
3WR rate: 65%
1st-down pass rate: 40%
Run friendly: +0.97
Scheme creativity: +0.23
Play action / motion: 21% / 57%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: committee
Ambiguity score: 75
Effective contributors: 4.79
Top player's share: 35%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: sell high
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: NE,LA,LV
Window matchup: +0.72
Opponents after: BAL,MIN
After matchup: -0.41
Flip edge: +1.13
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 7
Playoff schedule (15-17): +0.44

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

41.3

Per game

3.44

17-gm pace

Best / worst

8.6 / 0.6

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds
1	8.6	WR36	9	5	61
2	5.7	WR67	3	2	47
3	1.0	WR112	1	1	5
4	3.5	WR70	3	2	25
5	4.6	WR63	2	2	36
6	7.0	WR37	2	2	60
11	2.7	WR71	5	2	17
12	3.1	WR66	4	2	21
15	2.1	WR87	2	1	16
16	0.7	WR115	1	1	2
17	1.7	WR93	2	1	12
18	0.6	WR105	3	1	1