Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Jordyn Tyson

NOROOKIE R1

WR50 · overall #113 · tier 9 · age 22

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Projected points

78

8.7/gm

Value over replacement

11

repl 119

Range

56–101

sd 22

Week

0.0

vs ATL

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-09-02

Games set to 9.0 on Matt's read that he is OUT UNTIL WEEK 8. GAMES ONLY, no fantasy_points -- his per-game rate is not in dispute, only how many games he plays, and that is precisely what this column exists to say. The model had 14.1 games off a Doubtful designation worth only injury_games_mult 0.945; he is on IR now. WEEK 8 IS NEW ORLEANS' BYE, so 'back for week 8' is not a week-8 game -- his first is week 9, and weeks 9-17 is 9 games. The number is unchanged from the 18 Aug version, which reached the same 9.0 from a vaguer 'roughly two months'; what changed is that the premise is now a date somebody can check rather than a duration that silently ages. Re-derive if the return slips: on the shipped schedule NO plays weeks 1-7 and 9-17, so games = 18 - week_of_return, less one if the bye is still ahead. WHY THE MODEL DID NOT HAVE IT: exactly one item across all 49 cached feeds mentions him -- Canal Street Chronicles, 'When should we expect Jordyn Tyson to return from his injury?' -- and the timeline is in the article BODY, which is never fetched. A headline phrased as a question carries no gradeable pattern, so prose_severity returns None, provisional_severity does not fire, and the only graded item is a three-week-old ESPN note saying he PASSED his conditioning test. This is the title-and-description-only limit doing real damage rather than merely wasting a feed slot. Effect is modest and worth knowing: WR43 to WR48, because VOR is games x (rate - replacement) and a WR42's roster spot is worth little above the wire either way. The larger consequence is in New Orleans, where his 5.69 targets/g redistribute -- Olave to roughly 10.4 and Juwan Johnson to 5.8.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.6
Carries / game
0.1
Receptions / game
3.6
Rec yards / game
48
Rush yards / game
1
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.31
Total TD / game
0.31
Games projected
9.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
–
Games of history
0
Age multiplier
1.000
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
31.6
Projected plays / game
62.8
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-0.21
OL pass protection
+0.11
OL continuity
76%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
69%
1st-down pass rate
47%
Run friendly
-0.26
Scheme creativity
-0.29
Play action / motion
19% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
3.72
Top player's share
45%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
ATL,MIN,NYG
Window matchup
+0.02
Opponents after
PIT,CLE
After matchup
+0.48
Flip edge
-0.45
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
8
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.25

Last season game log

week by week

No 2025-season weekly record for Jordyn Tyson — rookies and players who did not record a stat line have none.