RB
Jonathan Taylor
INDRB4 · overall #4 · tier 1 · age 27
Projected points
233
17.5/gm
Value over replacement
137
repl 116
Range
192–274
sd 41
Week
20.0
@ WAS
The take
written by hand
A mild fade and I'm comfortable with it. 17.2 carries a game is genuinely elite; 13.3 games at 27 is why I'm RB6 and the room is RB4.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 40
- Carries
- 271
- Receptions
- 30
- Rec yards
- 231
- Rush yards
- 1244
- Rush TD
- 9.1
- Rec TD
- 1.0
- Total TD
- 10.1
- Games projected
- 13.3
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 19.5
- Games of history
- 52
- Age multiplier
- 0.934
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 32.7
- Projected plays / game
- 61.8
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- +0.69
- OL pass protection
- +0.76
- OL continuity
- 81%
- 2TE rate
- 35%
- 3WR rate
- 65%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 48%
- Run friendly
- +0.12
- Scheme creativity
- +0.53
- Play action / motion
- 31% / 50%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 1
- Effective contributors
- 1.32
- Top player's share
- 87%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.11
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy low
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- WAS,PIT,TEN
- Window matchup
- +0.35
- Opponents after
- MIN,JAX,DAL
- After matchup
- +0.23
- Flip edge
- +0.12
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 13
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.23
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
316.3
Per game
18.61
17-gm pace
316
Best / worst
46.6 / 3.9
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9.8 | RB23 | 18 | 71 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| 2 | 27.5 | RB1 | 25 | 165 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50 | 1 |
| 3 | 29.8 | RB1 | 17 | 102 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| 4 | 9.6 | RB29 | 17 | 76 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| 5 | 28.6 | RB2 | 17 | 66 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| 6 | 19.7 | RB8 | 21 | 123 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| 7 | 31.2 | RB3 | 16 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| 8 | 35.4 | RB1 | 12 | 153 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| 9 | 5.7 | RB32 | 14 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| 10 | 46.6 | RB1 | 32 | 244 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| 12 | 6.6 | RB25 | 16 | 58 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 | 12.1 | RB19 | 21 | 85 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| 14 | 11.4 | RB19 | 21 | 74 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 10.1 | RB21 | 25 | 87 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 | 13.9 | RB16 | 16 | 46 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| 17 | 14.4 | RB11 | 21 | 70 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| 18 | 3.9 | RB42 | 14 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |