John Bates

WAS

TE133 · overall #565 · tier – · age 28

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Projected points

1.4/gm

Value over replacement

-83

repl 112

Range

7–36

sd 15

Week

1.3

vs IND

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Targets / game: 1.2
Carries / game: 0.0
Receptions / game: 0.9
Rec yards / game: 8
Rush yards / game: 0
Rush TD / game: 0.00
Rec TD / game: 0.04
Total TD / game: 0.04
Games projected: 14.9
Observed pts/gm (history): 2.2
Games of history: 47
Age multiplier: 0.956
Usage carryover: 1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 33.8
Projected plays / game: 60.9
Projected pass rate: 56%
OL run block: -0.49
OL pass protection: -0.84
OL continuity: 84%
2TE rate: 31%
3WR rate: 67%
1st-down pass rate: 45%
Run friendly: -0.19
Scheme creativity: -0.16
Play action / motion: 20% / 50%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: clear lead
Ambiguity score: 15
Effective contributors: 1.93
Top player's share: 69%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.31

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: buy low
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: IND,NYG,SF
Window matchup: -0.11
Opponents after: PHI,LA
After matchup: -1.03
Flip edge: +0.92
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 7
Playoff schedule (15-17): -0.52

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

27.3

Per game

2.73

17-gm pace

Best / worst

9.3 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds	Re TD
5	1.9	TE48	1	1	9	0
7	1.5	TE47	2	1	5	0
8	3.2	TE35	1	1	22	0
9	4.0	TE36	4	2	20	0
10	1.6	TE47	2	1	6	0
13	2.9	TE41	2	2	9	0
14	0.0	TE58	0	0	0	0
15	2.9	TE45	1	1	19	0
16	0.0	TE64	1	0	0	0
18	9.3	TE15	2	2	13	1