Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

QB

Joe Milton III

DAL

QB62 · overall #602 · tier – · age 26

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Projected points

38

4.5/gm

Value over replacement

-95

repl 250

Range

7–69

sd 31

Week

0.9

@ HOU

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Pass attempts
108
Pass yards
769
Pass TD
4.9
Carries
6
Rush yards
46
Rush TD
0.2
Games projected
8.5
Observed pts/gm (history)
5.4
Games of history
5
Age multiplier
1.038
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
31.0
Projected plays / game
64.1
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+0.24
OL pass protection
+0.09
OL continuity
86%
2TE rate
20%
3WR rate
72%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.93
Scheme creativity
-0.33
Play action / motion
22% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
–
Top player's share
–
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
HOU,TB,GB
Window matchup
+0.01
Opponents after
PHI,ARI,IND
After matchup
+0.23
Flip edge
-0.22
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
14
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.27

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

4

Points

10.3

Per game

2.58

17-gm pace

44

Best / worst

6.3 / -0.9

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
3-0.4QB42354101000
86.3QB24345810000
16-0.9QB43221100170
185.2QB2771373014430