RB
Jaylen Warren
PITRB27 · overall #50 · tier 6 · age 27
Projected points
158
10.8/gm
Value over replacement
58
repl 110
Range
117–199
sd 41
Week
10.1
vs ATL
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 50
- Carries
- 182
- Receptions
- 41
- Rec yards
- 299
- Rush yards
- 795
- Rush TD
- 3.4
- Rec TD
- 0.5
- Total TD
- 4.0
- Games projected
- 14.7
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 11.6
- Games of history
- 64
- Age multiplier
- 0.934
- Usage carryover
- 0.90
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.5
- Projected plays / game
- 61.4
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -0.48
- OL pass protection
- +0.07
- OL continuity
- 79%
- 2TE rate
- 45%
- 3WR rate
- 52%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 45%
- Run friendly
- -0.86
- Scheme creativity
- -0.30
- Play action / motion
- 21% / 51%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach
- Ambiguity score
- 86
- Effective contributors
- 2.14
- Top player's share
- 60%
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 1.91
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- ATL,NE,CIN
- Window matchup
- +0.19
- Opponents after
- CLE,IND,TB
- After matchup
- -0.03
- Flip edge
- +0.22
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 9
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.17
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
16
Points
177.1
Per game
11.07
17-gm pace
188
Best / worst
27.1 / 4.8
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11.9 | 11 | 37 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| 2 | 13.4 | 14 | 48 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 86 | 0 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 18 | 47 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| 6 | 6.3 | 11 | 52 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| 7 | 15.8 | 16 | 127 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| 8 | 7.3 | 13 | 62 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| 9 | 14.9 | 16 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 10 | 9.1 | 14 | 70 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| 11 | 6.7 | 10 | 62 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 | 12.8 | 18 | 68 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 10.4 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| 14 | 12.2 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 1 |
| 15 | 4.8 | 12 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| 16 | 27.1 | 14 | 143 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 | 6.4 | 12 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 9.9 | 14 | 66 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 0 |