WR
Jaylen Waddle
DENWR14 · overall #42 · tier 4 · age 27
Projected points
168
11.6/gm
Value over replacement
60
repl 119
Range
101–235
sd 67
Week
8.8
@ SF
The take
written by hand
New team at 27 and I'm eight spots ahead of the room. 7.2 targets a game is modest, so be clear that the bet is on the role rather than on the rate.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 7.5
- Carries / game
- 0.2
- Receptions / game
- 4.8
- Rec yards / game
- 70
- Rush yards / game
- 1
- Rush TD / game
- 0.00
- Rec TD / game
- 0.37
- Total TD / game
- 0.37
- Games projected
- 14.5
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 12.1
- Games of history
- 62
- Age multiplier
- 0.939
- Usage carryover
- 0.89
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.2
- Projected plays / game
- 62.2
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- +1.17
- OL pass protection
- +1.48
- OL continuity
- 98%
- 2TE rate
- 23%
- 3WR rate
- 72%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- -0.37
- Scheme creativity
- +0.15
- Play action / motion
- 25% / 43%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 75
- Effective contributors
- 3.92
- Top player's share
- 35%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.85
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- SF,LAC,SEA
- Window matchup
- -0.39
- Opponents after
- ARI,KC,CAR
- After matchup
- +0.03
- Flip edge
- -0.41
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 10
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.49
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
16
Points
130.1
Per game
8.13
17-gm pace
138
Best / worst
17.0 / 0.7
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.0 | WR64 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 12.8 | WR14 | 6 | 5 | 68 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 9.9 | WR23 | 6 | 5 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 4.8 | WR45 | 6 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 17.0 | WR5 | 9 | 6 | 110 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 9.8 | WR21 | 8 | 6 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 1.5 | WR80 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 15.9 | WR3 | 6 | 5 | 99 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 8.2 | WR29 | 9 | 6 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 14.4 | WR12 | 7 | 5 | 84 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 5.2 | WR39 | 7 | 3 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 4.0 | WR45 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 13.1 | WR10 | 7 | 5 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 21 |
| 15 | 2.6 | WR72 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 7.2 | WR32 | 9 | 5 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 0.7 | WR101 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |