WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEAWR3 · overall #7 · tier 1 · age 24
Projected points
238
15.6/gm
Value over replacement
124
repl 119
Range
187–290
sd 51
Week
24.5
vs LAC
The take
written by hand
10.2 targets a game at 24 with the age curve still working for him. WR3 for me, WR3 for the room.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 10.4
- Carries / game
- 0.3
- Receptions / game
- 6.9
- Rec yards / game
- 89
- Rush yards / game
- 2
- Rush TD / game
- 0.00
- Rec TD / game
- 0.52
- Total TD / game
- 0.52
- Games projected
- 15.3
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 17.5
- Games of history
- 51
- Age multiplier
- 1.044
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 32.9
- Projected plays / game
- 61.2
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- +0.01
- OL pass protection
- +0.28
- OL continuity
- 99%
- 2TE rate
- 34%
- 3WR rate
- 58%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 50%
- Run friendly
- +0.17
- Scheme creativity
- -0.21
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 52%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 48
- Effective contributors
- 2.58
- Top player's share
- 56%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.54
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- LAC,SF,DEN
- Window matchup
- -0.18
- Opponents after
- KC,CHI,ARI
- After matchup
- +0.12
- Flip edge
- -0.29
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 11
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.42
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
17
Points
300.4
Per game
17.67
17-gm pace
300
Best / worst
33.1 / 3.3
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14.9 | WR13 | 13 | 9 | 124 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 14.3 | WR19 | 10 | 8 | 103 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 18.1 | WR7 | 6 | 5 | 96 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 11.0 | WR25 | 5 | 4 | 79 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | 23.2 | WR3 | 9 | 8 | 132 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 26.2 | WR3 | 13 | 8 | 162 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 22.3 | WR7 | 14 | 8 | 123 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 18.0 | WR8 | 9 | 8 | 129 | 0 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | 17.8 | WR9 | 6 | 5 | 93 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 16.1 | WR10 | 12 | 9 | 105 | 0 | 1 | 11 |
| 12 | 33.1 | WR1 | 10 | 8 | 167 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | 3.3 | WR71 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 24.6 | WR3 | 10 | 7 | 92 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| 15 | 14.8 | WR14 | 9 | 7 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 19.6 | WR6 | 13 | 8 | 96 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 11.7 | WR21 | 12 | 9 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 11.4 | WR16 | 8 | 6 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 |