Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Jauan Jennings

MIN

WR57 · overall #127 · tier 9 · age 29

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Projected points

109

7.7/gm

Value over replacement

4

repl 119

Range

42–176

sd 67

Week

3.5

vs MIA

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-08-22

Cut 22 Aug at Matt's read, and it is the SAME DEFECT as Wan'Dale Robinson earlier today -- a target share earned on one roster applied to another as though it were a property of the player. HIS RATE IS NOT THE PROBLEM: 8.08/g against a decay-weighted 9.41 means the model is already 1.33 BELOW his own history. It is the VOLUME. He ran 7.53 targets a game in San Francisco in 2024 and 6.00 in 2025, and the board carries 5.53 into MINNESOTA, where he is listed depth 3 behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison with T.J. Hockenson also in the room. That makes him the SECOND-MOST TARGETED PASS CATCHER on a team where he is third on the depth chart -- ahead of the depth-2 man, which is the tell. apply_incoming_competition exists for exactly this and is not called, having failed its held-out test, so an override is the only lever. Both markets price the move: ADP WR65, ECR WR55. WR57 sits between them, nearer ECR, matching how Wan'Dale was placed. THIRD instance today after Wan'Dale and, in the other direction, Rico Dowdle -- the depth chart and a carried-over share disagreeing, with nothing in the model to arbitrate.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.2
Carries / game
0.2
Receptions / game
3.3
Rec yards / game
41
Rush yards / game
1
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.32
Total TD / game
0.32
Games projected
14.1
Observed pts/gm (history)
10.9
Games of history
59
Age multiplier
0.876
Usage carryover
0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.1
Projected plays / game
61.1
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-0.05
OL pass protection
+0.10
OL continuity
76%
2TE rate
27%
3WR rate
63%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
-0.76
Scheme creativity
+0.22
Play action / motion
26% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
56
Effective contributors
2.95
Top player's share
48%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.66

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk7
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
MIA,NO
Window matchup
+0.75
Opponents after
IND,DET,BUF
After matchup
+0.39
Flip edge
+0.36
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.78

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

15

Points

145.8

Per game

9.72

17-gm pace

165

Best / worst

17.4 / 1.2

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
12.6WR835216000
217.4WR1110589100
45.4WR544224000
61.2WR92317000
75.1WR557431000
86.5WR477445000
912.1WR245441100
1014.1WR199671100
117.4WR346454000
1212.6WR197541100
1311.9WR206439100
1517.2WR115337200
1615.6WR146571100
1711.2WR234242100
185.5WR446435000