Jaret Patterson

MIN

RB88 · overall #309 · tier – · age 26

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Projected points

3.1/gm

Value over replacement

-40

repl 116

Range

4–55

sd 26

Week

0.8

vs MIA

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Targets / game: 0.8
Carries / game: 4.4
Receptions / game: 0.6
Rec yards / game: 4
Rush yards / game: 18
Rush TD / game: 0.10
Rec TD / game: 0.01
Total TD / game: 0.10
Games projected: 9.6
Observed pts/gm (history): 4.3
Games of history: 8
Age multiplier: 0.953
Usage carryover: 1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 33.1
Projected plays / game: 61.1
Projected pass rate: 58%
OL run block: -0.05
OL pass protection: +0.10
OL continuity: 76%
2TE rate: 27%
3WR rate: 63%
1st-down pass rate: 46%
Run friendly: -0.76
Scheme creativity: +0.22
Play action / motion: 26% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: committee
Ambiguity score: 51
Effective contributors: 2.70
Top player's share: 46%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.58

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: buy low
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: MIA,NO
Window matchup: +0.54
Opponents after: IND,DET,BUF
After matchup: +0.33
Flip edge: +0.21
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 6
Playoff schedule (15-17): +0.87

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

24.2

Per game

4.03

17-gm pace

Best / worst

11.4 / 0.1

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Att	Ru Yds	Ru TD	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds
8	3.0	RB46	11	30	0	0	0	0
9	4.4	RB39	9	44	0	0	0	0
10	0.1	RB68	1	1	0	0	0	0
13	11.4	RB23	11	54	1	0	0	0
17	0.1	RB80	1	1	0	0	0	0
18	5.2	RB42	8	29	0	4	3	8