Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

James Cook

BUF

RB8 · overall #16 · tier 2 · age 26

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Projected points

206

13.7/gm

Value over replacement

103

repl 110

Range

163–248

sd 43

Week

12.6

@ HOU

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
40
Carries
206
Receptions
32
Rec yards
276
Rush yards
1025
Rush TD
8.4
Rec TD
1.7
Total TD
10.1
Games projected
15.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
16.3
Games of history
66
Age multiplier
0.953
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.7
Projected plays / game
61.0
Projected pass rate
55%
OL run block
+1.34
OL pass protection
+1.30
OL continuity
79%
2TE rate
28%
3WR rate
65%
1st-down pass rate
40%
Run friendly
+0.96
Scheme creativity
+0.22
Play action / motion
21% / 57%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
8
Effective contributors
1.73
Top player's share
74%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.25

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
HOU,DET,LAC
Window matchup
+0.06
Opponents after
NE,LA,LV
After matchup
+0.28
Flip edge
-0.22
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
7
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.20

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

17

Points

302.2

Per game

17.78

17-gm pace

302

Best / worst

33.6 / 1.5

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
121.21344155580
226.52113221130
320.819108133100
422.522117143180
54.9154901000
68.7178700000
833.61921620000
913.527114011110
1010.71353055240
1120.41648033661
1221.917116133130
1318.732144033330
1411.11880022310
1531.12210723241
1626.416117221170
178.7207404130
181.521500000