Jalen Nailor
LVWR79 · overall #189 · tier 9 · age 27
Projected points
86
6.7/gm
Value over replacement
-10
repl 119
Range
19–153
sd 67
Week
3.5
vs KC
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-27
RE-PRICED 27 Aug after an audit found the premise had moved. The row said 'Raised to WR65 (ADP 65, Sleeper 56) from WR75' and was written as a 10-rank nudge to the market. His NATIVE rank has since fallen to WR88 -- the model cut him from 4.49 targets a game to 3.15 -- so the same constant was performing a 25-RANK RAISE, two and a half times what was sanctioned. Checked before re-pricing: no other Las Vegas override caused it. Bowers, Tucker and Mayer are identical with and without the stale rows, so this is the model learning something about Nailor rather than an artifact of somebody else's number. So the drop gets partial respect instead of being overridden outright. 86.0 lands about WR72 -- still an 16-rank raise on native, still below ADP WR64 and well below ECR WR54, which is the honest place for a player two markets like more than we do and whose own projection is falling.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 53
- Carries
- 2
- Receptions
- 32
- Rec yards
- 438
- Rush yards
- 5
- Rush TD
- 0.0
- Rec TD
- 3.5
- Total TD
- 3.5
- Games projected
- 12.9
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 6.0
- Games of history
- 43
- Age multiplier
- 0.939
- Usage carryover
- 0.89
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.6
- Projected plays / game
- 60.9
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- -1.08
- OL pass protection
- -0.32
- OL continuity
- 50%
- 2TE rate
- 42%
- 3WR rate
- 58%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- +0.59
- Scheme creativity
- -0.05
- Play action / motion
- 22% / 53%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach, committee
- Ambiguity score
- 98
- Effective contributors
- 4.24
- Top player's share
- 38%
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 2.55
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- KC,NE,BUF
- Window matchup
- -0.36
- Opponents after
- LA,NYJ,SF
- After matchup
- +0.01
- Flip edge
- -0.38
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 13
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.07
2025 game log
full season · Full PPR
Games
17
Points
100.7
Per game
5.92
17-gm pace
101
Best / worst
23.4 / 0.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.8 | WR81 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 6.1 | WR74 | 5 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 6.7 | WR56 | 5 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 9.2 | WR38 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 7.2 | WR56 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | 5.7 | WR62 | 4 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 0.0 | WR97 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 2.6 | WR78 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 23.4 | WR4 | 6 | 5 | 124 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 2.6 | WR80 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 0.0 | WR98 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 0.0 | WR109 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 6.0 | WR52 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 19.5 | WR10 | 5 | 3 | 47 | 2 | 1 | -2 |
| 16 | 0.0 | WR119 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 0.0 | WR120 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 7.9 | WR37 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 |