Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Isiah Pacheco

DET

RB40 · overall #120 · tier 8 · age 27

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Projected points

95

7.7/gm

Value over replacement

11

repl 110

Range

50–140

sd 45

Week

6.5

vs NO

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
2.2
Carries / game
9.4
Receptions / game
1.7
Rec yards / game
11
Rush yards / game
41
Rush TD / game
0.19
Rec TD / game
0.05
Total TD / game
0.23
Games projected
12.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
8.3
Games of history
51
Age multiplier
0.934
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.5
Projected plays / game
62.6
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.86
OL pass protection
+0.77
OL continuity
43%
2TE rate
33%
3WR rate
64%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
-0.25
Scheme creativity
-0.09
Play action / motion
28% / 60%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
40
Effective contributors
1.97
Top player's share
60%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.44

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
NO,BUF,NYJ
Window matchup
+1.05
Opponents after
CAR,ARI
After matchup
+0.78
Flip edge
+0.27
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.01

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

13

Points

77.8

Per game

5.98

17-gm pace

102

Best / worst

11.9 / 2.1

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
13.852503230
23.4102202170
35.3104501130
411.8735032131
57.1736033200
65.6125103100
711.91557121-30
85.8125800000
134.3316022170
143.093000000
152.1112100000
1610.5834076410
173.293200000