Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

TE

Gunnar Helm

TEN

TE30 · overall #213 · tier 7 · age 23

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Projected points

74

5.1/gm

Value over replacement

-28

repl 111

Range

46–102

sd 28

Week

4.6

vs NYJ

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
4.0
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
3.0
Rec yards / game
26
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.16
Total TD / game
0.16
Games projected
14.6
Observed pts/gm (history)
5.9
Games of history
16
Age multiplier
1.060
Usage carryover
0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.4
Projected plays / game
59.3
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-1.43
OL pass protection
-1.39
OL continuity
46%
2TE rate
21%
3WR rate
77%
1st-down pass rate
39%
Run friendly
+0.19
Scheme creativity
-0.29
Play action / motion
20% / 43%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach
Ambiguity score
84
Effective contributors
2.11
Top player's share
56%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
1.90

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
NYJ,PHI,NYG
Window matchup
-0.43
Opponents after
BAL,HOU,IND
After matchup
-0.54
Flip edge
+0.11
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
9
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.14

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

69.7

Per game

4.36

17-gm pace

74

Best / worst

12.9 / 0.6

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
12.121160
21.92290
34.233270
41.711120
55.454340
62.532150
75.654360
89.332231
92.011150
114.954290
128.176510
135.376230
141.32180
1512.944491
161.93290
170.62110