WR
George Pickens
DALWR11 · overall #28 · tier 3 · age 25
Projected points
187
12.5/gm
Value over replacement
76
repl 119
Range
128–246
sd 59
Week
9.0
@ HOU
The take
written by hand
8.1 targets a game across 14.9 of them. He finished WR5 last year and I'm at WR13, so this is a fade of the efficiency rather than of the role.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 8.2
- Carries / game
- 0.1
- Receptions / game
- 5.1
- Rec yards / game
- 75
- Rush yards / game
- 0
- Rush TD / game
- 0.01
- Rec TD / game
- 0.43
- Total TD / game
- 0.44
- Games projected
- 14.9
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 14.7
- Games of history
- 65
- Age multiplier
- 1.026
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 31.0
- Projected plays / game
- 64.1
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- +0.24
- OL pass protection
- +0.09
- OL continuity
- 86%
- 2TE rate
- 20%
- 3WR rate
- 72%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- -0.93
- Scheme creativity
- -0.33
- Play action / motion
- 22% / 52%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 75
- Effective contributors
- 3.92
- Top player's share
- 35%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.85
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- HOU,TB,GB
- Window matchup
- -0.24
- Opponents after
- PHI,ARI,IND
- After matchup
- +0.19
- Flip edge
- -0.44
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 14
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.35
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
198.9
Per game
11.70
17-gm pace
199
Best / worst
25.4 / 0.9
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.0 | WR64 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 12.8 | WR14 | 9 | 5 | 68 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 12.8 | WR12 | 9 | 5 | 68 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 25.4 | WR1 | 11 | 8 | 134 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 11.7 | WR16 | 4 | 2 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 22.8 | WR1 | 11 | 9 | 168 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 8.2 | WR24 | 6 | 4 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 7.8 | WR28 | 9 | 7 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 7.9 | WR30 | 9 | 6 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 20.4 | WR2 | 11 | 9 | 144 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 20.6 | WR4 | 9 | 9 | 146 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 10.8 | WR18 | 13 | 6 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 3.7 | WR43 | 9 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 3.3 | WR64 | 6 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 19.0 | WR5 | 9 | 7 | 130 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 7.8 | WR28 | 5 | 4 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 0.9 | WR86 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |