George Kittle
SFTE8 · overall #72 · tier 2 · age 32
Projected points
132
9.3/gm
Value over replacement
32
repl 112
Range
88–175
sd 43
Week
11.9
vs DEN
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Trimmed 22 Aug at Matt's read that the tight ends ended the day too high. Earlier today this row was written at 13.0 games x 12.03/g on the active/PUP finding and Schefter's 'ahead of schedule ... chance to play Week 1'. The rate half still stands -- 12.03 is his own three seasons at the TE decay of 0.65 and the model's native 9.60 was 2.4 below anything he has produced. THE GAMES ARE THE OPTIMISTIC PART. 13.0 of 17 for a 32-year-old eight months from a torn Achilles takes the best available reporting at face value, and the market does not: ADP TE10 and ECR TE36, the widest split on the board. TE6 keeps him well clear of a native TE11 without pricing a clean season.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 5.3
- Carries / game
- 0.0
- Receptions / game
- 4.0
- Rec yards / game
- 47
- Rush yards / game
- 0
- Rush TD / game
- 0.00
- Rec TD / game
- 0.51
- Total TD / game
- 0.51
- Games projected
- 14.2
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 14.7
- Games of history
- 57
- Age multiplier
- 0.865
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 35.5
- Projected plays / game
- 59.5
- Projected pass rate
- 56%
- OL run block
- -0.01
- OL pass protection
- -0.56
- OL continuity
- 78%
- 2TE rate
- 17%
- 3WR rate
- 45%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- +0.64
- Scheme creativity
- +0.36
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 70%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 45
- Effective contributors
- 2.39
- Top player's share
- 53%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.47
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- DEN,SEA,WAS
- Window matchup
- -0.06
- Opponents after
- ATL,LV
- After matchup
- -0.33
- Flip edge
- +0.27
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 8
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.99
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
11
Points
104.5
Per game
9.50
17-gm pace
162
Best / worst
18.7 / 0.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8.5 | TE6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| 7 | 0.0 | TE53 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 10.3 | TE6 | 5 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| 9 | 2.9 | TE33 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| 10 | 14.4 | TE3 | 9 | 9 | 84 | 1 |
| 11 | 18.7 | TE1 | 6 | 6 | 67 | 2 |
| 12 | 7.8 | TE7 | 10 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| 13 | 6.7 | TE14 | 5 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| 15 | 14.8 | TE7 | 9 | 8 | 88 | 1 |
| 16 | 17.5 | TE1 | 8 | 7 | 115 | 1 |
| 18 | 2.9 | TE30 | 7 | 5 | 29 | 0 |