Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

RB

George Holani

SEA

RB69 · overall #223 · tier – · age 26

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Projected points

52

5.1/gm

Value over replacement

-23

repl 116

Range

38–66

sd 14

Week

4.1

vs LAC

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-08-22

Cut 22 Aug from the audit's list -- RB47 against ECR RB59, and 6.51/g against a decay-weighted 1.43, +5.08, the largest rate overreach of any draftable back. PART OF THIS IS MY OWN FIX FROM TODAY: blend_promoted_share correctly took carries off Jadarian Price, and normalize_team_carries handed a share of them to Holani, who has 1.43/g of career production to justify it. Freeing volume in a room is not the same as knowing who gets it, and the man with the thinnest record collects by default.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
1.3
Carries / game
6.5
Receptions / game
1.0
Rec yards / game
7
Rush yards / game
26
Rush TD / game
0.20
Rec TD / game
0.00
Total TD / game
0.20
Games projected
10.2
Observed pts/gm (history)
1.9
Games of history
13
Age multiplier
0.953
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.9
Projected plays / game
61.2
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.01
OL pass protection
+0.28
OL continuity
99%
2TE rate
34%
3WR rate
58%
1st-down pass rate
50%
Run friendly
+0.17
Scheme creativity
-0.21
Play action / motion
23% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
39
Effective contributors
2.27
Top player's share
51%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.43

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
LAC,SF,DEN
Window matchup
+0.04
Opponents after
KC,CHI,ARI
After matchup
+0.08
Flip edge
-0.04
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.20

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

10

Points

20.8

Per game

2.08

17-gm pace

35

Best / worst

9.1 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
10.0RB810000000
26.0RB410000000
34.2RB521027022150
40.0RB740000000
50.0RB710000000
60.0RB690000000
70.0RB730000000
90.9RB593900000
109.1RB3173110000
110.6RB692600000