Garrett Wilson

NYJ

WR6 · overall #21 · tier 2 · age 26

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Projected points

189

14.1/gm

Value over replacement

repl 119

Range

139–238

sd 50

Week

13.5

@ CHI

The take

written by hand

9.8 targets a game, top ten at the position, across 13.4 games. Consensus has him WR21 and I have him WR14.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Targets / game: 11.2
Carries / game: 0.1
Receptions / game: 6.8
Rec yards / game: 80
Rush yards / game: 0
Rush TD / game: 0.00
Rec TD / game: 0.40
Total TD / game: 0.40
Games projected: 13.4
Observed pts/gm (history): 14.3
Games of history: 58
Age multiplier: 1.009
Usage carryover: 1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 34.2
Projected plays / game: 60.9
Projected pass rate: 58%
OL run block: -0.17
OL pass protection: -0.10
OL continuity: 79%
2TE rate: 22%
3WR rate: 72%
1st-down pass rate: 41%
Run friendly: -0.43
Scheme creativity: -0.07
Play action / motion: 19% / 57%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: committee
Ambiguity score: 75
Effective contributors: 6.43
Top player's share: 22%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: buy low
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: CHI,CLE,NE
Window matchup: +0.28
Opponents after: MIA,LV,KC
After matchup: +0.04
Flip edge: +0.24
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 13
Playoff schedule (15-17): -0.07

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

99.5

Per game

14.21

17-gm pace

242

Best / worst

24.4 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds	Re TD
1	22.5	WR7	9	7	95	1
2	9.0	WR54	8	4	50	0
3	24.4	WR2	13	10	84	1
4	20.2	WR10	8	6	82	1
5	19.1	WR12	10	6	71	1
6	4.3	WR71	8	3	13	0
10	0.0	WR94	3	0	0	0