QB
Gardner Minshew
ARIQB72 · overall #625 · tier – · age 30
Projected points
50
4.8/gm
Value over replacement
-112
repl 250
Range
4–96
sd 46
Week
1.3
@ NYG
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Pass attempts / game
- 14.5
- Pass yards / game
- 102
- Pass TD / game
- 0.56
- Carries / game
- 0.7
- Rush yards / game
- 4
- Rush TD / game
- 0.03
- Games projected
- 10.4
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 8.7
- Games of history
- 35
- Age multiplier
- 0.981
- Usage carryover
- 0.89
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.3
- Projected plays / game
- 62.2
- Projected pass rate
- 59%
- OL run block
- -0.14
- OL pass protection
- -0.29
- OL continuity
- 51%
- 2TE rate
- 48%
- 3WR rate
- 52%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- -0.40
- Scheme creativity
- +0.44
- Play action / motion
- 25% / 40%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 43
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.45
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy low
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- NYG,DET,LA
- Window matchup
- +0.19
- Opponents after
- DEN,DAL,SEA
- After matchup
- -0.10
- Flip edge
- +0.29
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 14
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.49
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
4
Points
-0.3
Per game
-0.08
17-gm pace
-1
Best / worst
1.4 / -1.1
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | -0.3 | QB39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 7 | -0.3 | QB36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 15 | -1.1 | QB38 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 1.4 | QB35 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 |