Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Emeka Egbuka

TB

WR12 · overall #44 · tier 4 · age 23

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Projected points

169

11.4/gm

Value over replacement

63

repl 115

Range

105–233

sd 64

Week

10.8

@ CIN

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
8.3
Carries / game
0.1
Receptions / game
4.8
Rec yards / game
65
Rush yards / game
1
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.41
Total TD / game
0.41
Games projected
14.8
Observed pts/gm (history)
11.6
Games of history
17
Age multiplier
1.052
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.6
Projected plays / game
62.1
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+0.88
OL pass protection
+1.32
OL continuity
82%
2TE rate
22%
3WR rate
72%
1st-down pass rate
44%
Run friendly
+0.57
Scheme creativity
-0.09
Play action / motion
17% / 58%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
90
Effective contributors
4.77
Top player's share
35%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
2.00

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
CIN,CLE,MIN
Window matchup
-0.25
Opponents after
GB,DAL,PIT
After matchup
+0.46
Flip edge
-0.71
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.62

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

164.2

Per game

9.66

17-gm pace

164

Best / worst

27.8 / 1.3

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
121.66467219
210.97429100
311.58685000
418.1104101110
527.877163100
63.44224000
77.812458000
85.09335000
1020.5136115100
116.59540000
124.78332000
136.28442000
142.59215000
158.47464000
164.52140000
173.55320000
181.3318000