Elijah Higgins

ARI

TE74 · overall #405 · tier – · age 25

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Projected points

3.2/gm

Value over replacement

-55

repl 112

Range

28–65

sd 19

Week

2.6

@ NYG

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Targets / game: 2.4
Carries / game: 0.1
Receptions / game: 1.8
Rec yards / game: 18
Rush yards / game: 0
Rush TD / game: 0.00
Rec TD / game: 0.08
Total TD / game: 0.08
Games projected: 14.5
Observed pts/gm (history): 3.4
Games of history: 43
Age multiplier: 1.050
Usage carryover: 1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 34.3
Projected plays / game: 62.2
Projected pass rate: 59%
OL run block: -0.14
OL pass protection: -0.29
OL continuity: 51%
2TE rate: 48%
3WR rate: 52%
1st-down pass rate: 49%
Run friendly: -0.40
Scheme creativity: +0.44
Play action / motion: 25% / 40%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: clear lead
Ambiguity score: 13
Effective contributors: 1.58
Top player's share: 78%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.29

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: buy low
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: NYG,DET,LA
Window matchup: +0.00
Opponents after: DEN,DAL,SEA
After matchup: -0.38
Flip edge: +0.38
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 14
Playoff schedule (15-17): +0.23

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

28.1

Per game

1.65

17-gm pace

Best / worst

9.1 / -0.9

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds
1	0.3	TE55	2	1	3
2	4.5	TE16	3	2	45
3	0.7	TE46	1	1	7
4	0.0	TE54	0	0	0
5	1.0	TE45	2	2	10
6	3.4	TE26	2	2	34
7	0.3	TE50	1	1	3
9	3.0	TE29	3	3	30
10	1.9	TE34	3	2	19
11	-0.9	TE70	3	2	11
12	0.0	TE58	0	0	0
13	1.7	TE38	2	2	17
14	0.0	TE57	1	1	0
15	0.3	TE56	2	1	3
16	9.1	TE14	8	7	91
17	0.0	TE59	1	0	0
18	2.8	TE32	3	3	28