Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

TE

Elijah Arroyo

SEA

TE89 · overall #453 · tier – · age 23

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Projected points

33

2.4/gm

Value over replacement

-63

repl 112

Range

15–50

sd 17

Week

1.7

vs LAC

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
1.9
Carries / game
0.1
Receptions / game
1.3
Rec yards / game
13
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.08
Total TD / game
0.08
Games projected
13.6
Observed pts/gm (history)
2.8
Games of history
13
Age multiplier
1.060
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.9
Projected plays / game
61.2
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.01
OL pass protection
+0.28
OL continuity
99%
2TE rate
34%
3WR rate
58%
1st-down pass rate
50%
Run friendly
+0.17
Scheme creativity
-0.21
Play action / motion
23% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
16
Effective contributors
1.94
Top player's share
67%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.32

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
LAC,SF,DEN
Window matchup
+0.07
Opponents after
KC,CHI,ARI
After matchup
+0.41
Flip edge
-0.34
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.66

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

13

Points

21.9

Per game

1.68

17-gm pace

29

Best / worst

8.9 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
10.7TE471170
23.1TE2632310
30.0TE571000
44.4TE2142440
51.0TE4511100
60.6TE492160
72.2TE3254420
98.9TE822291
100.5TE481150
110.0TE542000
120.5TE511150
130.0TE612000
140.0TE571000