Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Elic Ayomanor

TEN

WR68 · overall #177 · tier 10 · age 23

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Projected points

91

6.2/gm

Value over replacement

-14

repl 115

Range

47–135

sd 44

Week

5.8

vs NYJ

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
4.9
Carries / game
0.1
Receptions / game
2.8
Rec yards / game
34
Rush yards / game
1
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.25
Total TD / game
0.25
Games projected
14.6
Observed pts/gm (history)
7.5
Games of history
16
Age multiplier
1.052
Usage carryover
0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.4
Projected plays / game
59.3
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-1.43
OL pass protection
-1.39
OL continuity
46%
2TE rate
21%
3WR rate
77%
1st-down pass rate
39%
Run friendly
+0.19
Scheme creativity
-0.29
Play action / motion
20% / 43%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, committee
Ambiguity score
98
Effective contributors
4.85
Top player's share
30%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
2.55

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
NYJ,PHI,NYG
Window matchup
-0.40
Opponents after
BAL,HOU,IND
After matchup
-0.34
Flip edge
-0.06
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
9
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.12

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

96.0

Per game

6.00

17-gm pace

102

Best / worst

13.6 / 1.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
12.37213000
213.66456100
311.85438100
45.47244000
52.84218000
64.25327000
73.95229000
87.28452000
96.16346000
112.16211000
131.0515000
147.93114100
152.21117000
167.34358000
1711.77437100
186.510350000