Dawson Knox

BUF

TE67 · overall #379 · tier – · age 29

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Projected points

3.4/gm

Value over replacement

-52

repl 112

Range

17–80

sd 32

Week

3.5

vs NE

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Targets / game: 2.2
Carries / game: 0.1
Receptions / game: 1.6
Rec yards / game: 18
Rush yards / game: 0
Rush TD / game: 0.00
Rec TD / game: 0.15
Total TD / game: 0.15
Games projected: 14.4
Observed pts/gm (history): 6.0
Games of history: 55
Age multiplier: 0.933
Usage carryover: 1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 34.7
Projected plays / game: 61.1
Projected pass rate: 55%
OL run block: +1.32
OL pass protection: +1.30
OL continuity: 78%
2TE rate: 28%
3WR rate: 65%
1st-down pass rate: 40%
Run friendly: +0.97
Scheme creativity: +0.23
Play action / motion: 21% / 57%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: committee
Ambiguity score: 53
Effective contributors: 2.83
Top player's share: 40%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.62

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: sell high
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: NE,LA,LV
Window matchup: +0.28
Opponents after: BAL,MIN
After matchup: -0.68
Flip edge: +0.96
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 7
Playoff schedule (15-17): +0.48

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

67.7

Per game

4.23

17-gm pace

Best / worst

15.7 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds	Re TD
1	2.0	TE32	2	2	20	0
2	1.9	TE37	5	2	19	0
4	0.0	TE54	1	0	0	0
5	1.5	TE39	2	2	15	0
6	7.9	TE12	2	1	19	1
8	1.5	TE36	1	1	15	0
9	3.0	TE29	1	1	30	0
10	3.7	TE21	4	3	37	0
11	2.3	TE29	3	1	23	0
12	1.7	TE35	4	3	17	0
13	2.8	TE26	4	3	28	0
14	11.3	TE4	7	6	93	0
15	15.7	TE6	4	3	37	2
16	1.0	TE48	2	1	10	0
17	3.0	TE26	5	5	30	0
18	8.4	TE8	2	2	24	1