David Sills

WR78 · overall #187 · tier – · age 30

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Projected points

2.9/gm

Value over replacement

-9

repl 119

Range

0–29

sd 23

Week

0.0

vs GB

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Targets / game: 2.3
Carries / game: 0.1
Receptions / game: 1.3
Rec yards / game: 17
Rush yards / game: 0
Rush TD / game: 0.00
Rec TD / game: 0.11
Total TD / game: 0.11
Games projected: 2.1
Observed pts/gm (history): 4.0
Games of history: 19
Age multiplier: 0.845
Usage carryover: 0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 34.6
Projected plays / game: 62.1
Projected pass rate: 58%
OL run block: +0.87
OL pass protection: +1.31
OL continuity: 80%
2TE rate: 22%
3WR rate: 72%
1st-down pass rate: 44%
Run friendly: +0.51
Scheme creativity: -0.17
Play action / motion: 17% / 58%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: committee
Ambiguity score: 90
Effective contributors: 4.77
Top player's share: 35%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 2.00

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: buy low
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: GB,DAL,PIT
Window matchup: +0.22
Opponents after: CAR,ATL,CHI
After matchup: +0.41
Flip edge: -0.18
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 10
Playoff schedule (15-17): +0.64

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

31.1

Per game

2.59

17-gm pace

Best / worst

7.8 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds	Re TD
3	0.9	WR97	2	1	9	0
8	1.4	WR74	3	2	14	0
9	0.0	WR96	1	0	0	0
10	0.0	WR93	1	0	0	0
11	1.1	WR87	2	1	11	0
12	7.6	WR28	3	2	16	1
13	7.5	WR32	4	2	15	1
14	0.0	WR101	4	0	0	0
15	7.8	WR31	10	6	78	0
16	0.0	WR118	1	0	0	0
17	3.7	WR49	4	3	37	0
18	1.1	WR80	1	1	11	0